The government, which forecasts growth of 5.5 percent this year, has moved to reduce fiscal spending and doesn’t see the need for additional cuts “for the moment,” Araoz said today at the Bloomberg Peru Economic Summit in Lima.
“An economy growing at 6 percent isn’t overheating,” Araoz said. “Overheating is growth of 9 or 10 percent.”
Peru’s gross domestic product expanded 8.8 percent in March from a year earlier, the biggest increase since September 2008, the government reported last month. The economic recovery has “more room to run in the coming months,” Morgan Stanley said in a June 7 report, raising its forecast for growth this year to 7 percent from 4.9 percent.
The government has spent 93 percent of a two-year, $4.8 billion fiscal stimulus plan introduced after the global financial crisis sapped private investment, Araoz said. More than half the funds went to infrastructure projects, she added.
Peru’s central bank unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest rate last month to 1.5 percent from a record low 1.25 percent amid forecasts that the economy may expand at the fastest pace in Latin America. The increase, which surprised all 12 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, was the second in the region in more than a year, following Brazil’s raising of the Selic on April 28.
Tightening Cycle
The bank, in a statement accompanying the decision, said the “preventive” increase “doesn’t imply the start” of a tightening cycle.
The central bank will raise its reference rate for a second consecutive month when policy makers meet tomorrow, according to 10 of 12 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
The government is studying the sale of bonds to pre-finance next year’s fiscal deficit which will be no more than 1 percent of GDP, Araoz said. The country will return to a surplus in 2013, she said.
The government may issue bonds in the international market in anticipation of “potential turbulence” ahead of presidential elections in April, the ministry said Feb. 27.
“The outlook for the country is very solid and we’re not expecting a political shift to the extreme left” or to a government that is “too populist,” Araoz said.
Any advance by nationalist leader Ollanta Humala in pre- election polls is likely to lower asset prices and spark capital outflows, Bank of America said in a report last month.
Peru’s sol rose 0.1 percent to 2.8425 per dollar at 11:53 a.m. New York time.
The Lima Stock Exchange’s General Index climbed 1.7 percent to 13,852.28, the biggest intraday rise in almost two weeks.
Bloomberg - John Quigley
To contact the reporter on this story: John Quigley in Lima at jquigley8@bloomberg.net